As the summer of 2025 unfolds, climate change is intensifying extreme weather events worldwide, leading to significant disruptions in commodity production and international trade.

Escalating Extreme Weather Patterns

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports an 80% chance that global temperatures will break at least one annual heat record between 2025 and 2029, increasing risks of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and forest fires.

The report highlights a 70% probability that the five-year average temperature will exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, placing the world close to surpassing the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target.

In Nigeria, the worst flooding in 60 years has resulted in over 150 deaths and massive displacement, with the Niger River overflowing and destroying hundreds of homes.

This severe weather event coincides with Nigeria’s wet season, driven by the west African monsoon and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).

Meanwhile, the UK Met Office predicts that the summer months are more than twice as likely to be hotter than normal, following an unprecedented spring that was among the sunniest, driest, and warmest on record.

Impact on Commodity Production

Extreme weather events are severely affecting commodity production. In agriculture, droughts and heat stress are threatening yields of key crops.

For instance, rice production is facing increased exposure to heat stress, with projections indicating that about 90% of rice production could be at significant risk by 2050 under high-emissions scenarios.

Similarly, maize and wheat production are expected to face rising drought risks, with more than 30% and 50% of production, respectively, at significant risk by 2050.

In the mining sector, vital metals such as iron, bauxite, and zinc are facing rising risks of drought and heat stress in major production sites across China, Brazil, and Australia.

These conditions not only threaten worker safety but also reduce operational efficiency and output.

Disruptions to Trade Routes

Climate change-induced extreme weather events are also disrupting international trade routes.

Floods, storms, and rising sea levels pose serious risks to transport infrastructure, including roads, bridges, ports, and railway tracks, which are essential for the smooth operation of global trade.

For example, hurricanes and floods can directly damage these infrastructures and disrupt air transport, leading to delays and increased costs.

In Australia, extreme weather events like cyclones have highlighted vulnerabilities in the supply chain, with transportation costs being up to three times higher than in other countries.

This has emphasized the need for investment in more resilient infrastructure to mitigate future disruptions.