The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasted to be above average, poses significant challenges to forestry exports from the southeastern United States. This region, a major supplier of wood pulp, logs, lumber, and wood pellets, faces potential disruptions in production, transportation, and pricing due to anticipated storm activity. Forecasted Hurricane Activity NOAA predicts a 60% chance […]
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In Focus: How a Cessation of Hostilities in the Russia–Ukraine Conflict Could Reshape Global Commodity Trade Flows
As the war in Ukraine moves into its third summer the situation remains in the balance. Both sides are weary and have shown a greater willingness to mediate than at any point previously. Conversely, Ukraine has pointed to amassed Russian troops that suggest we may witness another summer offensive in 2025. All sides would welcome […]
Geopolitical Tensions and Marine War Risk Premiums: Impacts on Commodity Trade and Prices
Geopolitical tensions are now a defining feature of global maritime trade, increasingly driving up marine war risk premiums for vessels navigating through volatile regions. Over the next six months, the most acute threats are expected to emerge in the Red Sea, South China Sea, and Persian Gulf — areas critical to the flow of oil, […]
Cocoa Market Outlook: June–December 2025
The global cocoa market is navigating a complex landscape marked by production challenges, shifting consumption patterns, and evolving trade dynamics. Production Trends West Africa, particularly Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, remains the epicentre of global cocoa production, accounting for over 60% of supply. However, both nations have faced significant setbacks. Ghana’s output has been severely impacted […]
How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping Commodity Freight Rates
The imposition of sweeping tariffs by President Donald Trump in early 2025 has significantly disrupted global commodity freight markets, leading to immediate volatility and long-term shifts in international trade flows. These tariffs have raised the average U.S. import duty to 15.4%, the highest since 1938, contributing to declining investment, disrupted supply chains, and rising inflation. […]
Soybean Market Outlook: June–December 2025
The global soybean market is poised for significant shifts over the next six months, influenced by record production levels, changing consumption patterns, and evolving trade dynamics. Production Trends Brazil is expected to achieve a record soybean harvest of 169 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season, driven by expanded acreage and favourable growing conditions. The United […]
China’s Economic Crisis Reshapes Energy Demand and Global Commodity Flows
China’s prolonged economic slowdown is reshaping the country’s energy consumption patterns, with major implications for both domestic industries and global commodity markets. As growth decelerates, traditional demand drivers such as construction and heavy industry are weakening, prompting a shift not only in how much energy China consumes, but also in what types of energy it […]
How Japan’s rice production deficit might play out
Japan is facing a growing crisis in rice production due to a combination of aging farmers, declining rural populations, and increasingly erratic weather patterns driven by climate change. As domestic yields shrink and consumption remains stable, the country is expected to become a significantly larger rice importer in the coming years. This shift has major […]
Shipping Industry Adapts to Shifting Trade Flows Amid Trump’s Tariffs
The global shipping industry is undergoing significant adjustments in response to the sweeping tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump, known as the “Liberation Day” tariffs. These measures have reshaped international commodity trade flows, compelling shipping companies to reevaluate routes, capacities, and strategic partnerships. Redirection of Trade Routes The imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on […]
China’s Construction Slump Slows Commodity Consumption and Reshapes Global Trade
China’s ongoing economic slowdown, driven largely by a real estate crisis, is significantly reshaping global commodity markets. As demand for construction materials plummets, the ripple effects are being felt far beyond Beijing — disrupting trade flows, reshuffling global suppliers, and creating both risks and opportunities for producers and traders worldwide. The Decline of China’s Construction […]