The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasted to be above average, poses significant challenges to forestry exports from the southeastern United States.

This region, a major supplier of wood pulp, logs, lumber, and wood pellets, faces potential disruptions in production, transportation, and pricing due to anticipated storm activity.

Forecasted Hurricane Activity

NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes expected.

The Gulf Coast, including states like Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, is at a heightened risk for direct impacts this year.

Impact on Forestry Yields

The high winds and excessive rainfall from hurricanes have a higher than usual chance to damage standing timber, leading to reduced yields of logs and lumber.

Flooding can also hinder access to forested areas, delaying harvesting operations.

Wood pulp production may be affected if mills experience power outages or supply chain disruptions.

Wood pellet facilities, often located near ports for export efficiency, are vulnerable to storm surges and flooding, potentially halting production and shipments.

Transportation and Infrastructure Concerns

Storms can damage critical infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and rail lines, impeding the transport of forestry products to ports.

Port facilities themselves may suffer damage or closures during severe weather events, delaying exports.

The reliability of transportation networks is crucial for timely deliveries, and any disruptions can have cascading effects on international trade commitments.

Price Volatility

Supply disruptions often lead to price volatility in forestry products.

Reduced availability of logs and lumber can drive up prices domestically and internationally.

Conversely, damaged timber may flood the market in the short term, temporarily depressing prices.

Exporters may face contractual challenges if they cannot meet delivery schedules, potentially incurring penalties or losing market share to competitors.

Mitigation Strategies

Forestry companies are advised to review and update their emergency preparedness plans.

Investing in infrastructure resilience, such as reinforcing facilities and diversifying transportation routes, can mitigate some risks.

Engaging with local and federal agencies for timely information and support is also critical.

Diversifying markets and building flexibility into supply chains can help absorb shocks from regional disruptions.